Saturation in Forcing Efficiency and Temperature Response of Large Volcanic Eruptions (2025)#
Paper | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 130(9), e2024JD041098 Authors:
Eirik Rolland Enger, Rune Graversen, Audun Theodorsen
AbstractVolcanic eruptions cause climate cooling due to the reflection of solar radiation by
emitted and subsequently produced aerosols. The climate effect of an eruption may last
for about a decade and is nonlinearly tied to the amount of injected SO₂ from the
eruption. We investigate the climatic effects of volcanic eruptions, ranging from Mt.
Pinatubo-sized events to supereruptions. The study is based on ensemble simulations in
the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) climate model applying the Whole
Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (WACCM6) atmosphere model, using a coupled
ocean and fixed sea surface temperature setting. Our analysis focuses on the impact of
different levels of SO₂ injections on stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD),
effective radiative forcing (ERF), and global mean surface temperature (GMST) anomalies.
We uncover a notable time-dependent decrease in aerosol forcing efficiency (ERF
normalized by SAOD) for all eruption SO₂ levels during the first posteruption year. In
addition, it is revealed that the largest eruptions investigated in this study,
including several previous supereruption simulations, provide peak ERF anomalies bounded
at −65 W m⁻². Further, a close linear relationship between peak GMST and ERF effectively
bounds the GMST anomaly to, at most, approximately −10 K. This is consistent across
several previous studies using different climate models.
Nonparametric Estimation of Temperature Response to Volcanic Forcing (2025)#
Paper | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 130(10), e2024JD042519
Authors: Eirik Rolland Enger, Rune Graversen, Audun Theodorsen
AbstractLarge volcanic eruptions strongly influence the internal variability of the climate
system. Reliable estimates of the volcanic eruption response as simulated by climate
models are needed to reconstruct past climate variability. Yet, the ability of models to
represent the response to both single-eruption events and a combination of eruptions
remains uncertain. We use the Community Earth System Model version 2 along with the
Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6, known as CESM2(WACCM6), to study the
global-mean surface temperature (GMST) response to idealized single volcano eruptions at
the equator, ranging in size from Mt. Pinatubo-type events to supereruptions.
Additionally, we simulate the GMST response to double-eruption events with eruption
separations of a few years. For large idealized eruptions, we demonstrate that
double-eruption events separated by 4 years combine linearly in terms of GMST response.
In addition, the temporal development is similar across all single volcanic eruptions
injecting at least 400 Tg (SO₂) into the atmosphere. Because only a few eruptions in the
past millennium occurred within 4 years of a previous eruption, we assume that the
historical record can be represented as a superposition of single-eruption events.
Hence, we employ a deconvolution method to estimate a nonparametric historical GMST
response pulse function for volcanic eruptions, based on climate simulation data from
850 to 1850 taken from a previous study. By applying the estimated GMST response pulse
function, we can reconstruct most of the underlying historical GMST signal. Furthermore,
the GMST response is significantly perturbed for at least 7 years following eruptions.
AbstractThe plasma line in the incoherent scatter spectrum is known to provide information about
the state of the ionosphere. However, it is weak in signal strength and therefore
difficult to measure reliably and consistently. When high-energetic electrons
(suprathermal electrons) are present in the ionosphere the plasma line echo power is
enhanced and detectable by more radars. Recent measurements made by the Arecibo radar
show an altitude and aspect angle (angle between the radar beam and the magnetic field
line) dependence on the returned echo power of the plasma line. This was assumed to be
due to enhancements in the suprathermal electron velocity distribution but has neither
been confirmed through theory nor numerical analysis. The theory describing the plasma
line in the incoherent scatter spectrum due to scattering off thermal electrons has been
known for a long time. This theory includes radar measurements at large angles to the
magnetic field but a similar general derivation has not been formulated where
suprathermal electrons are included in the distribution. In this work a derivation of
the dielectric function which is a fundamental part of the derivation of the incoherent
scatter spectrum was carried out for an arbitrary isotropic velocity distribution.
Further, a program calculating the spectrum using the derived dielectric function was
developed. The program was used to model the incoherent scatter spectrum for different
electron velocity distributions and the echo power in the plasma line as a function of
aspect angle and electron number density. It was shown that the enhancements found in
the suprathermal distribution map to the structures found in the plasma line echo power,
in line with the proposed explanation based on measurements. These findings support an
aspect angle formula relating energy and received plasma resonance frequency based on
the assumption that the main contributing factor to the resonance frequency are the
electrons with velocity close to parallel to the magnetic field line.